Strategypage On Iraq Again

The Kurds and Shia Arabs have formed a national police force and army that is far more powerful than anything the Sunni Arab community can muster. Over the last year, Sunni Arabs realized that the police and army were in control of more and more Sunni Arab towns.

That�s nice: Sunni towns ruled by Shia/Kurd dominated security forces. The Sunnis must love that.

If this is true it means that the Bush strategy, to �stand up� the Iraqi security services, is working, and in the test of wills the changing facts on the ground are changing the minds of the Sunnis.

The alliance with al Qaeda was a disaster. These Islamic terrorists were obsessed with causing a civil war in Iraq, and they insisted on doing this by killing lots of Shia Arabs. The Sunni Arabs didn't want to kill lots of Shia Arabs, they wanted to rule them all once more.

This makes a lot of sense. It doesn�t do the Sunnis much good if they rile up the Shiites. They want the Shiites nice and quiet, just like they were in the �good old days� of Saddam.

The trouble with TV war is that the bombs and the mayhem are not where the action is. The place to be is a fly on the wall at the headquarters of the various combatants. What do they think is happening, and what do they plan to do next? But you never learn all that until long after the event.

Something to think about with regard to Al Qaeda. They want to take over the entire Middle East and make it into a new caliphate. That means that every present ruler and politician will be out of a job. We should understand, and maybe we do, that we Yanks and most Middle Easterners are on the same side on this one.

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Christopher Chantrill blogs at www.roadtothemiddleclass.com. His Road to the Middle Class is forthcoming.

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