The Widening Middle Eastern War

JORDAN’S KING Abdullah recently warned of three developing civil wars in the Middle East. There’s the headline war in Iraq. But there is also a developing civil war in Lebanon. And now there is the growing likelihood of civil war in the Palestinian Occupied Territories between the forces of Fatah and Hamas, reports Claude Salhani.

According to Laurie King-Irani, "The Palestinians have let themselves fall right into the trap set for them by the Israeli extreme right."

Well maybe, whatever a remark like that is supposed to mean.

But for us the Middle East is probably more like the Germany of the Thirty Years War from 1618 to 1648. There is a religious conflict between Sunni and Shia. There are great powers around the periphery, each with their interests. And there is plenty of money to keep soldiers in the field.

The immediate consequence of the Thirty Years War was to promote France to the front rank of the great powers, and to delay for 200 years the emergence of Germany as the pivot of Europe.

None of that was obvious at the beginning of the Thirty Years War. So we may be surprised by the outcome of the eternal Middle East conflict.

But it is clear that the articifial borders created by the western powers in the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after World War I are creaking and crumbling—as they were bound to do sooner or later. Nobody would care about that, were it not for Israel and oil.

Before the Great Middle Eastern War is over, the Middle East will probably end up as devastated as Germany in the middle of the seventeenth century.

And then there is Somalia.

Sphere: Related Content |

Christopher Chantrill blogs at www.roadtothemiddleclass.com. His Road to the Middle Class is forthcoming.

Comments:

Posted by: Ima Loser on 12/19/06 9:16am

This is potentially a very interesting and productive analogy, far more so than the usual WWII/Vietnam cliches. Mark Steyn has been working on an analogy with WWI, but I wonder if this might be the way to go. I usally find something to disagree with Mr. Chantrell, but in this instance I back him completely. Let's keep exploring this.

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